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Project Estimates Are NOT Commitments – Why The Confusion?

Project EstimatesArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP, APMC, CSM 

A major task for a project manager, and/or the project team, is to estimate the work effort needed to deliver the project.  Does this task seem to be one of the hardest to ‘get right?’..Do we give the impression that the project estimates are actual commitments?  Why the confusion? 

What Is An Estimate? 

Loosely defined an estimate is to calculate something approximately or form an approximate judgment or opinion regarding the size of something.  So in essence, when you have completed your work breakdown structure and are satisfied that you have detailed all the tasks for your project, the next step will be to attach a work effort estimate to each task.  Added together, these estimates will determine approximately how long the project will take to complete. 

This level of effort estimate will be your opinion or your project team’s opinion based either on recent past or historical information.  Sometimes it will just be ‘a best guess’ since no one on the team has done anything like it in the past.  And this can cause issues that we may not even recognize since we have been doing it this way forever.  We need to emphasize that we don’t know what we don’t know.  We think it might be but we are not sure.

 

And the Crystal Ball Says 

Estimating is a key component in project planning.  Many critical elements, such as budget and schedule, are secured based on these estimates.  And once we provide this information to the stakeholder and executive, those estimates magically evolve into commitments.  Why does that happen?  Do they really believe that part of a project manager’s skill set is reliably predicting the future?  Why are we letting ourselves be set up for failure?  Could this be one of the leading factors in determining why we are only successful 38% of the time in successfully delivering a project as documented in the 2010 Standish Chaos Report.

 

Accurate Estimates – An Oxymoron 

After all, accurate is, by definition, free from error or defect; precise, exact.   

In my opinion, I think others in the organization believe project managers should have all the answers because they have had exposure to many and varied project initiatives.  It also raises the question as to why executives would think that estimates would be accurate. 

Accurate estimates only occur once that task is complete and we know exactly how long it took to complete.  Estimates are not free from error as we all know.  We usually add or subtract an agreed upon percentage of error to justify variances in the estimates.  There is no precision attached to estimates.

 

A Teachable Moment 

Once we have achieved buy in about what estimates represent (an opinion, judgment or best guess about the time associated with completing a project task), we will have the target delivery date and budget.  Now we need to educate the project team, project sponsors, stakeholders and company leadership that all things being equal, there is a good chance we will make those dates and dollars.  

Most likely there will be some variation.  Knowing that your team, sponsors,  and company leaders understand the concept of estimates, realize that there is a 5, 10 or 15% +/- probability of error in the estimates (those % will be agreed upon before the project is started).  That will be validated once the actual work effort is completed and can be used in estimating in the future.

 

And Now 

Project Managers will be able to provide estimates without them becoming a commitment.  The project manager will still make every effort to work within the estimates derived during planning.  When an issue or risk does rear its ugly head and affect the project, you will be able to replan and re-estimate remaining tasks and provide the updated information on budget and timeline knowing those involved with the project and the company’s leaders, understand that this is part of project management and the challenges in estimating. 

Do your leaders commit the project to the estimates as if they were exact?  Can they be educated and open to understanding the challenges faced by Project Managers? 

 

© 2011 Gwen Miller.  All Rights Reserved. 

 

Visit website Gwen Miller, PMP, APMC, CSM

 

or Follow on Twitter  @GwenMillerPMP

 

Transforming To An Agile Project Management Office – A Study in Trust and Courage

Transforming Project Management OfficeArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP, APMC, CSM 

Agile Methodologies such as Scrum, XP, and Kanban are here to stay.  To keep pace, Project Management Offices (PMOs) need to transform from traditional command and control, task oriented organizations to lean and mean agile machines (couldn’t help myself, just sounded cool!!).  Can the PMO demonstrate the courage to take on the transformation and trust that it can facilitate processes that assist with adding business value and lead continuous improvement?  I say ‘Yes we can!!’ (‘Just do it’ was already taken). 

Let the Transformation begin! 

Or maybe not.  Here is where things get a little challenging.  Here is where traditionalists hold tight to the PMBoK and get on their soapbox.  How can the PMO support ‘lightweight practices’?  We need all that documentation and those processes otherwise what will we do.  Indeed, what will we do? 

In my experience, the PMO has always been the keeper of the project processes.  In a Agile PMO, that does not change.  In fact, it is paramount for the PMO staff to focus on ensuring that Agile Methodologies like Scrum are implemented as best as can be.  Process for process sake will sink any transformation.  Think waste reduction.  The concentration should be on helping scrum teams look for non value added activities to be eliminated from the process. 

How will we report on project status? 

Many PMO’s find themselves lost if they don’t have the standard MS Project Plan/Gantt chart that provides numerical and graphic representation of the project’s status at any point in time.  Agile makes the status of a project very visible.  The scrum team creates a task board that represents the activities to be accomplished during that project (I like to think of each sprint as a project) and updates it on a daily basis.  As those walking by notice that things seem to move on the task board and that represents progress. 

ScrumMasters track other metrics like burn down charts.  A sprint burn down chart graphically represents the work remaining over the duration of a sprint which feeds into the release burn down chart which represents the progress against a release plan.  Agile’s version of the gantt chart (in my opinion). 

Is that all there is? 

No, that’s not all.  But enough to get started and other articles will follow.  There is much for the Agile PMO to do to ensure success and it all starts with the process.  Trusting that the role of the PMO is just as important in the lean/agile world, if not more so, as it is in the traditional setting, and having the courage to adapt its role will ensure longevity for the PMO and start the transformation to a value added organization. 

Do you trust in the process and have the courage to change?

 

© 2011 Gwen Miller.  All Rights Reserved. 

Visit website Gwen Miller, PMP, CSM 

or Follow on Twitter  @GwenMillerPMP

 

Rolling Wave and Progessive Elaboration – Have PM’s been Agile all along?

Rolling WaveArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP, CSM

Rolling wave and progressive elaboration are two terms that are not foreign to project managers.  As a matter of fact, both can be found in the PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) and can be questions on the PMP exam.  When you delve into what each of these techniques offer to the project manager in terms of removing uncertainty, you may begin to think ‘Have PM’s had the techniques to be agile all along?

My crystal ball is broken!

Trying to predict the future is difficult if not almost impossible.  Yet when we start project planning that is exactly what we are trying to do.  Predict the future.  We gather requirements for what the customer would like the project to deliver.  The customer provides us with their success criteria which will be what the perception of project success will be based on.

Then we set out to ‘plan‘ the project.  But what do we really know.  Do we really have enough information to base our estimates, budget, resources, risks, etc?

So why don’t we do it this way?

We acknowledge that we don’t know everything we need to know when we start a project.  Rolling wave planning aims to bring more detail to the plan in waves or steps so the project delivers on the original requirements.  By elaborating on the requirements in waves, scope creep should not occur.  The requirements should not be changing, just being further defined to provide clarity and remove uncertainty.

Additionally, as the project manager you are better able to manage your resources, budget, risks and there is a high level of communication between your team, the stakeholders and company leadership.  Also, the team is much happier and more productive.  It is so much easier for them to produce the deliverable of the moment without worrying that it will miss the mark.

Is this showing agility?

Yes and no.  Rolling wave planning used in Agile processes, incorporates making decisions at the last responsible moment, when the most viable information is available.  In essence, the same process we use in the traditional project management process when rolling wave planning is used.  That is where we are demonstrating agility because we are increasing flexibility and forecasting accuracy.

But that is where the agility ends.  The remaining project processes are still under the old ‘command and control regime’.  The project manager is still accountable for the project outcome and for the business value yet to be realized.  The team does not self organize and volunteer for tasks.  The project manager has provided an avenue to increase the odds of delivering a successful project using rolling wave or progressive elaboration.  Too bad the remaining processes we use still want us to predict the future and inhibit change.

The Courage of Leadership

Implementing agile methodologies like scrum and kanban take courage on the part of the leadership team in any organization.  Even understanding that using rolling wave planning or progressive elaboration takes an act of faith and trust.  Both embrace processes that can reduce risk and scope creep; a positive factor in delivering the project successfully.  It does create angst with many leadership teams.  With rolling wave planning there is still a level of uncertainty.

While milestone are identified and estimated, the delivery date can still be a bit of a mystery.  As we get further along in the project, there will be more certainty and a more likely delivery date will be uncovered.  The company’s leaders need to remember, that projects planned in the traditional manner, no matter how well the team estimated, something will happen that impacts the team from completing the deliverables in the original timeframe.

Leadership needs to have the courage to try something new; to discover better ways to deliver business value.

Do your leaders have courage? 

 

© 2011 Gwen Miller.  All Rights Reserved.

 

Project Manager and Business Analyst – Does a project really need both roles?

Project Manager and Business AnalystArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP 

Project Manager, Business Analyst – does that sound like the same role to you?  I recently read two articles published in Tech Republic on two different days.  The first article was from a Computerworld Survey on Top IT skills in 2010 and the other was predicting what the IT department will look like in the year 2015. 

One glaring similarity in both articles was the ‘twist‘ – project managers morphing into a hybrid between the business analyst and a project manager.  It never ceases to amaze me that company leaders will knowingly (or perhaps unknowingly) set themselves up for failure. 

I may be schizophrenic? 

I will admit there are some similar skills required to be competent in either role.  One might think that the roles are interchangeable and that demonstrates a lack of understanding of the Business Analyst role.  Business analysis is NOT a task assigned to, or completed by, the project manager. 

The conflict caused by one individual fulfilling the responsibilities of two roles is quite challenging, trying to focus on one role at a time (which hat am I wearing now?).  The conversations between your Business Analyst and Project Manager regarding certain aspects of the project should be quite interesting, especially if you disagree.  The internal debate might make you think ‘I’m losing it!!’ 

Differences abound 

As a Project Manager your focus is on the big picture, directing the project team, assisting the project team in completed the assigned tasks, removing impediments, and managing the triple constraints (scope, time, schedule) to ensure the project is delivered on time, within budget, with the features and functions required by the customer.  You would also possess management skills. 

As a Business Analyst you are detailed-oriented, listen to the business subject matter experts to assist them in describing why and how they execute their tasks, identify business issues, make sure the product of the project is built and delivered according to the requirements, and possesses analytical/exploratory skills. 

Can you see the difference?   

So now what? 

While the roles of project manager and business analyst overlap and reinforce each other, all projects require business analysis and project management skills.  A few skills are similar (i.e. strong communication, interpersonal and stakeholder management) but many are different.  Companies need to begin to understand that trying to combine the two roles is not a way to improve the success of their projects and their bottom line.  This is not an area that combining processes creates efficiencies.  Companies need to recognize the importance of each role and embrace how these two roles working together results in project success. 

Does your company understand the importance of keeping the business analyst and the project manager role as separate and distinct? 

 

© 2011  Gwen Miller  All Rights Reserved. 

 

The Project Management Institute (PMI) and the International Institute of Business Analysis (IIBA) are the professional organizations for project management and business analysis and are working to promote the career progression of the PM and BA role as well as knowledge of both professions.  Both organizations are dedicated to the development and maintenance of standards for the practice of project management and business analysis, and for the certification and recognition of practitioners.

The Missing Link – Executive Support for Project Management Processes

Project Management ProcessesArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP 

Executive support for project management processes required to successfully manage projects, especially IT Projects, seems to be almost non-existent.  Why is it that so many C-level executives do not appreciate the art and science that is project management?   

What’s the problem? 

With the failure of IT projects still in the 60+% range, I would hazard a guess that any corporate executive would pull out all the stops to make sure that their IT projects were delivered successfully.  Many studies suggest that implementing and following project management processes increases the likelihood of decreasing the number of projects that end up being considered a failure.  I think there are two issues at the heart of the problem. 

One is a negative opinion of project management and the second is lack of education on project management. 

Just deliver the project 

Many times I hear executives criticizing project management processes.  It seems during their careers, they had a bad experience or witnessed poor execution of the processes.  The issue is project managers that do not modify how they apply the processes based on the complexity of the project. 

A project that would be considered low complexity or low risk would not need the same level of rigor (or process) as a highly complex, cross functional, cross departmental, high risk initiative.  But that is what happens, time and again.  And that is where the frustration sets in and negative opinions are formed. 

We don’t need no education 

Many executives have not been exposed to project management education.  Many business programs do not include a project management course as an elective.  Even in Information Systems or Computer Science curriculum, project management is a 3 credit core course.  The exposure is minimal at best unless education is focused on project management. 

And the winner is….. 

If the only exposure to project management has been deemed ‘process purgatory’, I can understand why many executives are not supportive.  And not understanding the art and science of project management puts those executives at a disadvantage.

However, those who have educated themselves, from an executive perspective, know what to expect from the process and can intervene when they think ‘That’s TOO Much’.

There are many ways executives can gain this information, and perhaps, begin to understand how project management can help them increase the percentage of successfully delivered projects and receive the business value expected from that investment. 

Do your executives support project management?

 

© 2011  Gwen Miller  All Rights Reserved.

 

Risk Management – Is this really necessary?

Risk ManagementArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP 

Anyone who has been on a project team should be aware of what risk management is and why it is needed.  If we understand the intent for managing project risks, then why does it seem that risk management is the least practiced knowledge area in project management? 

Purpose of Risk Management 

Decreasing the likelihood and impact of negative events or increasing the likelihood and impact of positive events is the purpose for risk management processes.  But I find that many projects tend to focus on the negative characteristics of risk.  Could this be a clue leading us to the reason or reasons that risk management processes seem to be nonessential? 

Don’t Shoot the Messenger! 

Going to leadership and owning up to risk events occurring on the project could be confused with negativity because of the focus on negative events.  I have experienced, first hand, environments where the C-level executives would advise the project managers, that s/he only wanted to hear ‘good news’.  And they would emphasize the GOOD NEWS part. 

You get the drift.  The flip side of the coin, bring bad news and be prepared.  Shooting the messenger never solved the problem.  In this organization, the culture of ‘only good news’ deterred project team members from bringing impending risks to the attention of leadership. 

Differing Views of Risk Management 

Risk management processes are perceived to be extra work, additional cost to the project, and inhibit creativity.  Or that facilitating scheduled risk review meetings create a ‘negative vibe’ with those associated with the project because the focus is on reasons that the project might fail. 

As project managers, we need to demonstrate that effective risk management is the best tool, and when used can increase the likelihood of project success.  We need to provide the evidence that supports the claim.  Walk the talk. 

Risk Attitude Adjustment 

One way to garner buy-in and support for risk management from project sponsors, C-level executives or leadership is to clarify the benefits of integrating risk planning, analysis and response efforts into the project plan.  This will result in sufficient resources being assigned to deal with issues caused by risk events when, and if, they occur.  The results should be fewer surprises, the team feels prepared, and the project should be delivered within agreed upon parameters.  

The project should deliver the full ROI for which it was undertaken.  This is the benefit derived from delivering the project on time, on budget, and to specifications.  The proof that will show those who think that risk management only focuses on the ‘negative’ and is nothing more than a prediction of doom and gloom, can and does have a positive impact on project results. 

Does the leadership in your organization need a risk attitude adjustment?  Show them the benefits!! 

 

© 2011  Gwen Miller  All Rights Reserved.

Stakeholder Management – Reality Check for Project Managers

Stakeholder Management Article Written by Gwen Miller, PMP 

Stakeholder Management is a valuable exercise that successful project managers use to make certain that their projects are delivered as expected where others fall short.  The Stakeholder Management process allows the project manager to pinpoint the project’s key stakeholders and gain their support.  Is this a reality check for project managers?

What is a Stakeholder?

A stakeholder is anyone that is affected by your project, or has an interest in the outcome of the project, or has some authority or control over your project.  Just by the definition alone, gives some indication as to why managing this group is key to the success of the project.  But is there a faction of this group that exerts more influence?

Let’s Analyze the Stakeholders

As an integral part of stakeholder management, the project manager should perform a stakeholder analysis.  This process identifies the key people that need to be won over.  Stakeholders can be both people and organizations.  When an organization is identified, the project manager will need to identify the right stakeholders within a stakeholder organization so the project manager knows with whom they will communicate.  How many different types of stakeholders could exist?

Stakeholder Categories

Most stakeholder analysis classifies stakeholders into the following three categories:

1.  Key Stakeholders – A subset of stakeholders who have the power to prevent the project from realizing its agreed upon objectives and possibly cause the project to be unsuccessful, or shape the opinion of the project’s eventual success.  Key stakeholders can also be in one of the two remaining categories.

2.  Primary Stakeholders – are those stakeholders most directly affected , either positively or negatively, by the outcome of a project.

3.  Secondary and/or Tertiary Stakeholders – Are those stakeholders who have an interest in the outcome of a project, although it is less significant and are “indirectly affected” by the outcome of the project.

Once you have completed the categorization of the stakeholders, the next step will be to identify their attitude toward the project.  You can use color coding to record your interpretation.  Advocates and supporters in green, opposers and critics in red and those who are neutral in yellow.

The Benefits of Stakeholder Analysis 

This analysis will pinpoint the highest priority stakeholders so the project manager can focus on those who are important to the success of the project.  Stakeholder analysis can be completed at scheduled intervals during the project to access changes in stakeholder attitudes.

Now the project manager knows more about the stakeholders and what they think about or how they might react to the project.  This information is instrumental when creating the communication plan and considering how to engage with all stakeholders to discover and manage their expectations before and during project execution, thereby avoiding an otherwise successful project being perceived as a failure.

The reality check, performing stakeholder management can be the difference between success and everything else.  What do you choose?

 

© 2011 Gwen Miller.  All Rights Reserved

Should Project Managers Lean Towards Process Orientation?

Project ManagersArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP 

Project managers and processes.  Hard to think of one without the other.  Most project managers have received some level of project management training.  In many project management training classes, there’s a lot of focus on the flow of processes in the project life cycle.  Because of this focus should project managers be process oriented? 

The Value of Process 

There’s something safe in following a proven, repeatable process.  That’s what most organizations hope to achieve with their project management methodology.  Most organizations conduct a retrospective or lessons learned as part of their methodology so if something isn’t working, it can be fixed.  This continual improvement of the methodology is a process of itself. 

Customers trust their project investment to an organization that can provide them with the process that will be used to manage, control and implement their project.  Company leadership look for a defined process to help them determine if their project will provide positive ROI for the funds invested.  Project Management Offices look to processes for metrics to measure PMO performance.  Is there a possibility that processes may actually be a burden, causing us to waste valuable resources? 

Process Burdening Agility 

Every process should have a goal or purpose or create a deliverable.  Why else would you do the process?  When you study the reasons for failed projects, one of the primary causes is that sound project management practices (i.e. processes) were not employed.  This could be the result of burdensome processes being abdicated for a ‘just do it’ approach.  This could be the sign of a power mad PMO that embraces a directive to comply with too many processes.  

This approach does not add value and does not provide a project management process that allows for flexibility.  This type of methodology ‘process for processes sake’, slows down project progress and impacts the morale of the project team.  In response, project managers may take their own approach and ‘just do it’!  This can negatively impact an already troubled project. 

So Just Do It Works 

It might work, providing the project manager knows what ‘IT’ is and is allowed to do ‘IT’ the right way.  How is ‘IT’ a repeatable process?  How does the rest of the team proceed?  The project manager would need to communicate each step to ensure ‘IT’ was done correctly.  And if ‘IT’ is not, who takes the heat?  This is very risky!! 

The ‘just do it’ approach may work when you have encountered a problem that has not arisen on any prior project.  The project team will need to be creative to create a workaround or a permanent solution.  Either way, they are ‘just doing it’ for that isolated incident and should get back on track once solution is implemented.   

The solution to the problem will be discussed during the project retrospective or lessons learned.  The processes will be adjusted as part of the continuous improvement process for the project methodology.  But ‘just do it’, or project management by the seat of your pants will never be the methodology of choice.  I am positive your company would not want to invest in any projects that were managed with that approach.

The Right Amount of Process

As each project is unique, so should the processes used to manage, control and implement the product of the project.  Negotiate which processes are necessary with your key stakeholders and document those that are deemed low value or non value work as out of scope.  Be able to measure the agreed upon processes so you can validate your performance.   

I think that project managers will need to have a process orientation to understand how to maneuver amongst the project processes and know how to use them to drive their project to success and provide metrics on performance and achieved value/benefit. 

Would you agree with that assessment? 

 

© 2011 Gwen Miller.  All Rights Reserved

 

Can You Be A Successful Project Team Leader?

Project TeamArticle Written by Gwen Miller, PMP

 

When a project manager undertakes the responsibility for a project, you acknowledge the activity is undertaken to create a specific outcome.  Because the project is temporary in nature, and the resources assigned report into a functional manager, can you be a successful project team leader?

Getting the Right Team 

As the project manager, it’s up to you to ensure you have the right resources, the resources that can make or break your project.  If you have the right team, your likelihood of success greatly increases.  In many situations, you don’t have as much control over the resource assignments or the optimal resources for your project aren’t available.  This is a prime opportunity to put your leadership skills into action.

Leading your project team 

Team success is largely influenced by the quality and skill of the person who leads it. So what makes an effective project team leader?

We are well aware that management styles vary.  Managers can be task oriented where their main concern is getting the job done or they could be people oriented where they focus on making sure that people work well together.  To effectively manage a team, the project manager will need to balance between both task and people orientations.  Also, the project manager will have to understand team dynamics as it will play a role in the success of a team and its overall effectiveness (forming, storming, norming, performing).

Creating Trust

Teams are made up of individuals.  Each of them must share in the team’s common objectives and commit to the goal of delivering the project.  But each team member may have their own personal objectives.  As the project manager, you need to be aware of these personal objectives.  As long as the personal objectives won’t cause issues or delays on the project, you should work with the team members to achieve their goals in tandem with the deliverables they’re responsible for creating for the project.

This will create a level of trust between you and the team.  They will perform their tasks and keep an eye out for any issues that may impact the success of ‘their’ project.  There may come a time when circumstances have impacted the delivery of the project.  Because you have created a trusting relationship with the team, they will provide the necessary support until the work is complete.  They are taking responsibility along with you, the project manager, for the success of the team and the project.

At other times, a team member may need special support and attention or the needs of the group as a whole need to be addressed as they drive to deliver the project.  The team is aware that you will be there to sustain them when required.  To sum it up, having a good grip on the core of the project, being a good communicator and being a people person are very critical to being a successful project team leader.

Can you see yourself being a successful project team leader?

 

© 2011 Gwen Miller.  All Rights Reserved

 

Using Project Management Interns

PM InternWritten by Gwen Miller, PMP 

I recently saw a question on one of my LinkedIn Groups.  The question asked ‘Have you ever been a Project Management Intern and if you would use an Intern into your Project Management shop?’

I had never been a Project Management Intern.  When I first started out in Project Management, you were lucky to be recognized in the role of Project Manager.  Never mind an organization considering an internship for that role.  In other organizations where I worked, there always seemed to be interns.  And of course, one area where interns are very popular is in medicine.

Opportunities to teach and learn 

I think it’s an excellent opportunity for any project management organization to utilize interns.  Whether it’s a paid or unpaid internship is up to the company.  I used to ensure funds were set aside in the budget so our PMO could hire an intern, twice a year, for a 16 week period, 20 hours per week.  The PMO team would work together to come up with a work plan.  In doing so you can focus the efforts of the intern and make sure that they get exposure to many different aspects of working in a PMO and the variety of projects assigned to the project managers.

While the interns are paired up with the project managers or the project coordinators, I observed the interactions on many occasions.  If only the PM’s could see themselves, how involved they would be in explaining the nuances of project management.  This was such a good exercise that gave the PM’s the opportunity to coach and mentor, practicing and expanding their skills.

But the interns were also ‘teaching’.  Teaching the PM’s some techniques that they were taught in school but never able to practice until now.  The PM’s would challenge the viability and the interns would explain the application further.  There were a few techniques that we adapted to our methodology and the intern understood that sometimes the theory does not translate in practice.  It was a win-win for all.

Finding Internship Candidates 

I worked closely with a local university that has a MSc, Project Management program.  As part of their program, the students had to be exposed to the practical aspect of project management.  They could not graduate without completing this component.

This relationship fostered other internship opportunities between the company and the university.  Another win- win situation.

An unexpected benefit 

Now you’re wondering, what unexpected benefit could you get from having an intern?  The interns we had were full of energy and enthusiasm and had such a positive attitude it became infectious.  Not only do they provide additional project support, but an intangible benefit in rejuvenating PM’s that have been in the trenches for a long time.

I have had such great experiences having interns on my team.  Tell me about your experiences with interns.  We can compare notes.

© 2011 Gwen Miller.  All Rights Reserved